ANC biggest loser in 2016 coalition outcome, DA biggest winner but EFF still holds the keys

Introduction

Following the recent local government elections, I wrote the following four posts about the state of play in the 27 hung municipal councils where none of the political parties contesting the election in a municipality had a clear majority of the seats allocated:

The final coalition whistle blew on 25 out of the 27 hung councils who had their statutory meetings to elect mayors, speakers and other office bearers before the deadline of 14 days after the IEC declared and gazetted the final results. The 2 outstanding municipal councils who still need to elect their office bearers are the following:

  1. Jozini in KwaZulu-Natal where the municipal council have met three times and every time deadlocked with 20 votes to each coalition with the ANC (19) and 1 independent councillors voting together and the IFP (18), EFF (1) and DA (1) voting together -> ANC pushing for a by-election in Jozini
  2. Kgatelopele in the Northern Cape where The DA and KCF agreed to a coalition to form a majority government with 4 seats (2 each) out of the 7 seats on the council. One of the DA Councillors was however shot execution style before the council meeting and the council therefore have 1 vacancy currently and the DA/KCF coalition could not be formalised. An ANC member was subsequently arrested and charged for the murder of the DA Councillor -> ANC ward candidate charged with DA councillor’s murder

National coalition agreements reached

Following the elections, the major political parties scurried to secure coalitions in as many of the 27 hung councils as possible (see this article for an overview of what happened behind the scenes -> The six meetings that changed South African Politics ). In the end the DA formed a coalition on a national basis with a number of smaller parties such as COPE, the UDM, ACDP and the FF+ (DA enters into coalition with UDM, ACDP, IFP, COPE) whereas the EFF decided not to enter into any formal coalitions but to support the DA in voting for office bearers in municipalities where this will result in the ANC being unseated (EFF not going into coalition government with any other party ).

This basically outmanoeuvred the ANC nationally, leaving them very little room to negotiate and secure locally agreed coalitions in a small number of the 27 hung municipal councils. As things unfolded thereafter in 25 of the 27 hung municipal councils, bore testimony that in the 2016 coalitions stakes the ANC was the biggest loser, the DA the biggest winner but that the EFF is the party that still holds the key in many of these municipalities.

Local coalition developments

Despite the nationally agreed coalitions secured by the DA and the EFF’s approach to strategically support what they called the lesser of two evils namely the DA, at local level a few interesting developments still unfolded in the following 6 hung municipal councils:

  1. Mogale City in Gauteng where despite the election of DA Mayor, an ANC speaker was elected with speculation that the IFP voted with ANC for speaker and with DA for Mayor -> Mogale City elects a DA mayor & ANC speaker
  2. Rustenburg in the North West where the EFF had its best chance to govern a municipality but where they were left disappointed when the BCM voted with the ANC to deny them this opportunity ->  Newly elected ANC mayor shocked at result
  3. Modimolle/Mookgopong in Limpopo where 2 ANC members must have voted for a DA Mayor as the DA candidate received 17 votes in total as opposed to the 15 the DA expected (7 from DA, 6 from the EFF and 2 from the FF+) ->  ANC loses Modimolle mayor post to DA
  4. Nquthu in KwaZulu-Natal where the ANC subsequently disputed the outcome of the mayoral election ->  ANC disputes outcome of Nquthu council meeting
  5. eDumbe in KwaZulu-Natal where two IFP Councillors voted together with ANC and against the wishes of their party and were subsequently expelled from the IFP ->  IFP in KZN expels two councillors for siding with ANC
  6. Kannaland in the Western Cape where ANC/DA coalition has the majority in Council although both parties have indicated that they did not officially form a coalition. The DA is busy investigating the fact that 2 DA Councillors voted with the ANC against the national leaderships wishes ->  DA to discipline Kannaland councillors

I have captured the outcome of the forming of coalitions for each of the 27 hung municipal councils in the table that’s attached at the end of this article. The information is as far as I could ascertain correct for each municipality however in a number of instances I had to make certain assumptions as all the information required was not always in the public domain. I also relied on the following valuable entry in Wikipedia that sets out in detail the outcome of the 2016 local government elections -> South African Municipal Elections, 2016 .

I then analysed the outcome across the 27 municipalities to establish certain trends as how the coalition stakes unfolded. The major findings are set out below.

Minority vs majority coalition governments

In 11 of the 27 hung municipalities (40.74%) a minority government were formed where the leading coalition did not have enough seats/votes to secure a majority government and where they will therefore have to rely on the ongoing support of another party that’s not part of the ruling coalition.

Of these 11 municipalities the EFF’s support is required in 6 minority governments led by the DA (Johannesburg, Tshwane, Mogale City, Metsimaholo, Thabazimbe and Modimolle/Mookgopong), support from the EFF in 4 minority governments led by the IFP (Endumeni, Nquthu, Abaqulusi and Mtubatuba) and the support of at least one IFP councillor in 1 ANC led minority government (eDumbe). The EFF therefore holds the keys in 10 of the 11 minority local governments which will require careful management of the coalition/EFF relationships in these municipalities.

In 14 of the 27 hung municipalities (51.85%) the leading coalition were able to form a majority government. This includes 8 DA led municipalities (Nelson Mandela Bay, Witzenberg, Hessequa, Knysna, Prince Albert, Laingsburg, Beaufort West and Ubuntu), 5 ANC led municipalities (Ekurhuleni, Rustenburg, Estcourt/Loskop, Bitou and Nama Khoi) and 1 ANC/DA led municipality (Kannaland).

In 10 of the 14 majority government municipalities (71.42%) the leading coalition has secured just enough seats/votes to secure an ordinary majority. This includes 6 DA led municipalities (Nelson Mandela Bay, Witzenberg, Hessequa, Laingsburg, Beaufort West and Ubuntu), 3 ANC led municipalities (Rustenburg, Bitou and Nama Khoi) and 1 ANC/DA led municipality (Kannaland). This means that if any by-election is to take place in any of these 10 municipalities over the next 5 years, the balance of power could potentially shift to another party/coalition.

In only 4 majority government municipalities does the leading coalition have a majority of either +1 or +2 (one or two more seats than what is required for an ordinary majority). This is for the ANC in Estcourt/Loskop and the DA in Prince Albert = +1 majority and ANC in Ekurhuleni and the DA in Knysna = +2 majority).

The remaining 2 hung municipalities (7.40%) is still to be decided (Jozini and Kgatelopele).

Ruling coalition does not include the party that got the most votes/seats in the election

In 12 of the 25 decided hung municipalities (48%) the leading coalition is a group of parties that do not include the party that received the most votes/seats in the election. The worst affected by this is the ANC with 10 out of the 12 municipalities where in 8 of them they conceded government of the municipality to the DA and 2 municipalities to the IFP. The 10 municipalities in which the ANC received the most votes/seats in the 2016 local government elections, but where they still failed to form a leading coalition government are the following (major party leading the coalition in brackets):

  1. Johannesburg (DA)
  2. Metsimaholo (DA)
  3. Mogale City (DA)
  4. Thabazimbe (DA)
  5. Modimolle/Mookgopong (DA)
  6. Endumeni (IFP)
  7. Abaqulusi (IFP)
  8. Hessequa (DA)
  9. Laingsburg (DA)
  10. Ubuntu (DA)

The DA lost 1 municipality (Bitou) where the received the most votes to the ANC and ICOSA 1 municipality (Kannaland) to an ANC/DA coalition.

The 10 municipalities lost by the ANC is a direct consequence of their failure to reach formal coalitions at national level with any of the key political parties.

Change in leading party

The following table reflects the number of hung municipal councils where there was a change in the leading party in 2016 compared to the 2011 local government elections. The list contains only 23 hung municipalities because two newly demarcated municipalities (Modimolle/Mookgopong and Estcourt/Loskop) did not exist in 2011 and 2 hung municipalities still needs to be decided (Jozini and Kgatelopele):

Untitled

The table indicates that the ANC is the biggest loser having lost 78% of the 14 hung council municipalities where a different party is leading compared to 2011.

Conclusion

The above analysis supports the notion that in the 2016 coalitions stakes the ANC was the biggest loser, the DA the biggest winner but that the EFF is the party that still holds the key in many of these municipalities.

Managing the coalitions in the 27 municipalities is going to require extraordinary wisdom, diplomacy and patience given the narrow majority margins in most of these municipalities and the fact that the leading coalitions in 10 of these municipalities will require the ongoing support of the EFF -> Difficulties of forming and maintaining coalitions

Summary table

The attached PDF document summarises the coalition outcomes in all of the 27 hung local municipalities and were used to conduct the analysis set out in this post.

2016 Coalition outcomes for 27 hung municipalities

Poll: Should the DA & EFF form coalitions in some of the key hung municipalities?

Coalition Fever: An Overview of the Picture in KwaZulu-Natal

INTRODUCTION

Following the 2016 local elections, South Africa is gripped with coalition fever, with 27 municipalities having hung councils where no one political party has more than 50% of the allocated seats.

Forming coalitions is an exercise in real politics ( politics or diplomacy based primarily on considerations of given circumstances and factors, rather than explicit ideological notions or moral and ethical premises) and its therefore dangerous to predict beforehand the outcome of any coalition negotiations. Relying on what is speculated in the mainstream media is especially fraught with danger as evidenced in this article looking at what transpired in 2006 in Cape Town when parties were also faced with a hung council scenario Anatomy of a coalition coup: Are there lessons ahead of the August election?

In this series of blog posts I nevertheless looked at the possible coalitions in each of the 27 municipalities. In the first post the situation in the Metros was looked at ->  Coalition Fever: An Overview of the Metro Picture and in the second one the situation in the Free State, Gauteng, Limpopo and North West Provinces -> Coalition Fever: An Overview of the picture in the Free State, Gauteng, Limpopo and North West Provinces

In this third post I will look at all the hung councils in KwaZulu-Natal and in the last post possible coalitions in the Western and Northern Cape Provinces.

KWAZULU-NATAL PROVINCE

There are seven municipalities in the province with no outright majority party. The ANC has the most seats in five of these and the IFP in two, but the two parties are quite evenly matched in most of these municipalities.

The ANC needs the EFF as a coalition partner in most of these municipalities, assuming that ANC/IFP or ANC/DA coalitions are not on the table. There is also the chance that some councils may remain hung.

ENDUMENI

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC  51.35%  49.53% -1.82 %
 IFP  16.12%  30.52%  +14.40%
 DA  20.54% 15.59% -4.98%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 13
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 7
  • Seat allocation: ANC 6 seats, IFP 4, DA 2, EFF 1
  • Scenario: The ANC short only 1 seat and the IFP 3.
  • Possible coalitions: The ANC could partner with any one of the IFP, DA or EFF. The IFP will have to partner with the ANC or alternatively both the DA and EFF if it wants to form a majority in this municipality.

CONCLUSION

The outcome will very much depend on which way the IFP will go with one newspaper article suggesting that they plan to cut out the ANC in six KwaZulu-Natal municipalities -> Talks about coalitions continue

NQUTHU

Nquthu Local Municipality is an administrative area in the uMzinyathi District of KwaZulu-Natal. Nquthu is an isiZulu name meaning ‘the back of the head’. Isandlwana, the site of the historic Anglo-Zulu War battle that took place on 22 January 1879, is a well-known tourist destination worldwide. Nquthu Local Municipality is located along the north-eastern boundary of the district. It borders onto the Endumeni, eMadlangeni, AbaQulusi, Ulundi, Nkandla and Msinga Local Municipalities. It is predominantly rural in nature, with expansive rural settlements being one of the major features.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 IFP  40.07%  44.09%  +4.02%
 ANC  40.36%  42.02%  +1.66%
 NFP  16.24% 5.96% -10.28%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 33
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 17
  • Seat allocation:  IFP 15 seats, ANC 14, NFP 2, EFF 1, DA 1
  • Scenario: The IFP short 2 seats and the ANC 3.
  • Possible coalitions: The IFP could partner with the ANC or the NFP or both the EFF and DA. The ANC will have to form a coalition with the IFP or alternatively the NFP with the support of one more additional seat from either the EFF or DA.

CONCLUSION

The Nquthu municipality is the only one the NFP was allowed to contest as it paid the registration fee for this municipality on time -> NFP still has Nquthu, IEC .

Given the past history between the IFP and NFP the most likely coalition is between the IFP and DA/EFF. The NFP formed a coalition with the ANC in this municipality after the 2011 municipal election but this time around both parties will have to woo over either the EFF or DA to work with it.

Read this -> Consolation for NFP in Nquthu

ESCOURT/LOSKOP

Escourt/Loskop Local Municipality is located approximately 165km north-west of Durban and 400km south-east of Johannesburg. The National Road N3 also traverses the municipality on its western portion. The municipality comprises parts of the magisterial districts of Weenen and Estcourt; the informal settlements of Cornfields, Thembalihle and Mimosadale; Loskop and settlements around Weenen. Escourt is the largest commercial centre in the Midlands region. Weenen is a small agricultural town that is starting to emerge as a tourist destination.

This is a newly formed municipality through the amalgamation of the former uMtshezi and Imbabazane Local Municipalities

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC  Newly established municipality  49.48%  n/a
 IFP Newly established municipality  39.73%  n/a
 DA Newly established municipality 4.16% n/a

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 46
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 24
  • Seat allocation: ANC 23 seats, IFP 18, DA 2, AL JAMA-AH 2, EFF 1
  • Scenario: The ANC short only 1 seat and the IFP 6.
  • Possible coalitions: The ANC could form a coalition with the IFP, DA, AL JAMA or EFF. Only they can form a majority coalition in the municipality as the best that the IFP could do is to work with the DA, AL JAMA and the EFF to also hold 23 seats.

CONCLUSION

The possibility exist that this Council may remain hung.

eDUMBE

eDumbe Local Municipality is situated within the Zululand District Municipality in the north-western part of KwaZulu-Natal. The location of the head office is in Paulpietersburg, which is 50km north of Vryheid and 59km south of Mkhondo (previously Piet Retief).

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC  27.61%  50.65%  +23.04%
 DA  4.44%  25.26%  +20.82%
 IFP  16.03% 15.57% -0.46%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 16
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 9
  • Seat allocation: ANC 8 seats, DA 5, IFP 3
  • Scenario: The ANC short 1 seat and the DA 4.
  • Possible coalitions: Only the ANC can form a majority coalition in eDumbe by working with the DA or IFP. The best the DA can do is to match the 8 seats of the ANC by working with the IFP.

CONCLUSION

This is one of the municipalities that the NFP controlled after the 2011 municipal elections. In 2016 the possibility exist that the Council may remain hung.

ABAQULUSI

AbaQulusi Local Municipality is a local municipality in Zululand in the KwaZulu-Natal province. It is named after the AbaQulusi, a Zulu clan whose descendants live in the vicinity of Vryheid, Utrecht, eDumbe and eNgoje.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC  38.52%  46.22%  +7.7%
 IFP  35.01%  42.14%  +7.13%
 DA  6.65% 7.13% +0.7%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 44
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 23
  • Seat allocation: ANC 21 seats, IFP 19, DA 3, EFF 1
  • Scenario: The ANC short 2 seats and the IFP 4.
  • Possible coalitions: The ANC could work with the IFP or DA. The IFP on the other hand will have to work with both the DA and EFF.

CONCLUSION

The outcome will very much depend on which way the IFP will go with one newspaper article suggesting that they plan to cut out the ANC in six KwaZulu-Natal municipalities -> Talks about coalitions continue

JOZINI

Jozini Local Municipality is located in northern KwaZulu-Natal and borders Swaziland and Mozambique. The Lebombo Mountains and Makhatini Flats provide a diverse and beautiful terrain rich in local resources, including water features and fossil sites. Both Ndumu and Mkuzi Game Reserves can be found straddling the borders of the Jozini Municipality.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC  49.84%  47.88%  -1.96%
 IFP  39.58%  46.18%  +6.6%
 EFF  – 1.99% +1.99%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 40
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 21
  • Seat allocation: ANC 19 seats, IFP 18, EFF 1, DA 1, Independent 1
  • Scenario: The ANC short 2 seats and the IFP 3.
  • Possible coalitions: The ANC could form a coalition with the IFP or any two of the EFF, DA or the independent councillor. The IFP can partner with the ANC or the EFF/DA/Independent.

CONCLUSION

The IFP seems to want to cut out the ANC in as many of the hung councils in KwaZulu-Natal as possible. The most probable coalition therefore is that of the IFP and the EFF/DA/Independent.

Read this -> DA could be kingmaker in KZN and KZN coalition cards close to the chests .

MTUBATUBA

Mtubatuba Local Municipality is situated along the northern coastal belt of KwaZulu-Natal and in the south-eastern corner of the uMkhanyakude District Municipality. Mtubatuba is located roughly 200km north of Durban and 55km north of the Richards Bay/Empangeni metropole along the N2 National Route. Mtubatuba has developed from a railway siding into a strong sub-regional commercial, service, transport and administrative centre for the entire north-eastern Zululand region.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 IFP  39.88%  44.86%  +4.98%
 ANC  40.86%  43.98%  +3.12%
 DA  3.82% 3.82% +2.81%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 40
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 21
  • Seat allocation:  IFP 18 seats, ANC 18, DA 2, EFF 1, AIC 1
  • Scenario: Both the IFP and ANC short 3 seats.
  • Possible coalitions: The IFP and ANC could partner with one another or alternatively the DA and one or both of the EFF or AIC.

CONCLUSION

The IFP seems to want to cut out the ANC in as many of the hung councils in KwaZulu-Natal as possible. The most probable coalition therefore is that of the IFP and the DA/EFF.

THE NEXT BLOG POST

In the last post in this series on municipal coalitions I will look at the situation in the Western and Northern Cape Provinces.

WORD OF THANKS

Thanks to the IEC and Paul Berkowitz for the pictures used in this series of blog posts. Paul wrote an excellent summary on the coalition picture outside of the Metros which could be read here ->  Coalition politics: what’s possible outside of the metros .

 

Coalition Fever: An Overview of the picture in the Free State, Gauteng, Limpopo and North West Provinces

INTRODUCTION

Following the 2016 local elections, South Africa is gripped with coalition fever, with 27 municipalities having hung councils where no one political party has more than 50% of the allocated seats.

Forming coalitions is an exercise in real politics ( politics or diplomacy based primarily on considerations of given circumstances and factors, rather than explicit ideological notions or moral and ethical premises) and its therefore dangerous to predict the outcome of any coalition negotiations beforehand. Relying on what is speculated in the mainstream media is especially fraught with danger as evidenced in this article looking at what transpired in 2006 in Cape Town when parties were also faced with a hung council scenario Anatomy of a coalition coup: Are there lessons ahead of the August election?

In this series of blog posts I will nevertheless look at the possible coalitions in each of the 27 municipalities. In my first post I looked at the situation in the Metros ->  Coalition Fever: An Overview of the Metro Picture and in this one I will look at the situation in the Free State, Gauteng, Limpopo and North West Provinces, followed by a third post looking at KwaZulu-Natal and a last post looking possible coalitions in the Western and Northern Cape Provinces.

Note – Thanks to the IEC and Paul Berkowitz for the pictures used in this series of blog posts. Paul wrote an excellent summary on the coalition picture outside of the Metros which could be read here ->  Coalition politics: what’s possible outside of the metros .

FREE STATE PROVINCE

The only municipality in the Free State with a hung council is that of Metsimaholo.

METSIMAHOLO

The Metsimaholo Local Municipality is an administrative area in the Fezile Dabi District of the Free State province. Metsimaholo means ‘big water’ in Sesotho. The municipality was established in 2000 through the amalgamation of the then Sasolburg, Deneysville and Oranjeville Transitional Local Councils.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party

2011 % vote

2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC  63.04%  45.08%  -17.96%
 DA  28.97%  35.22%  +6.25%
 EFF  – 17.87% +17.87 %

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 42
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 22
  • Seat allocation: ANC 19, DA 12, EFF 8, MCA 2, FF+ 1
  • Scenario: The ANC short 3 seats for a majority and the DA 10
  • Possible coalitions: The ANC could partner with the DA or EFF individually or together with the two smaller parties or just with the MCA (the Metsimaholo Community Association, a local party that might hold the balance of power) and FF+ who together holds 3 seats. The DA could form a coalition with the ANC or EFF but in the latter instance they will require the support of the one or both of the smaller parties.

CONCLUSION

I agree with Paul Berkowitz that the ANC has more options in Metsimaholo than the DA. A lot however depends on the decision of the MCA, a crucial partner in two of the possible coalitions. Looking at the latest news articles it seems that the MCA is not open to discussing coalitions with the ANC ->  Cold shoulder for ruling party

GAUTENG PROVINCE

Other than the three metros Mogale City is the only other municipality in Gauteng that will require a coalition. An ANC-led coalition is most likely, as the party only needs 1 more seat for a majority, while a coalition of minority parties requires the participation of every other party.

MOGALE CITY

Mogale City Local Municipality lies directly west and south of the City of Johannesburg and City of Tshwane Metropolitan areas respectively, and forms part of one of the three district municipalities that make up the peripheral areas of the Gauteng province. To the north, west and south it borders onto the Madibeng, Rustenburg and Rand West City Local Municipalities respectively. The northern part of Mogale City comprises the bulk of the Cradle of Humankind World Heritage Site. Mogale City’s strongest functional urban linkage is with the City of Johannesburg. Krugersdorp and the greater Kagiso area.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party

2011 % vote

2016 % vote % Shift
ANC 60.36%  48.84% -11.52%
 DA  32.89% 34.88%  +1.99%
 EFF  –  11.65%  +11.65%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 77
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 39
  • Seat allocation: ANC 38 seats, DA 27, EFF 9,  FF+ 2, IFP 1
  • Scenario: The ANC short 1 seat and the DA 12.
  • Possible coalitions: The ANC only requires 1 seat and can therefore form a coalition with the DA or EFF or any of the two smaller parties. The DA will require the support of the EFF, FF+ and IFP to be able to form a majority.

CONCLUSION

Its likely that the ANC will be able to form a coalition as it requires the support of just one of the smaller parties.

NORTH WEST PROVINCE

There is only one municipality in need of a coalition in the North West province, but it’s a very important one. Rustenburg is the only contested municipality where the EFF is the ‘official opposition’. The roles of the Forum 4 Service Delivery (F4SD) and the Botho Community Movement (BCM) will be important.

RUSTENBERG

Rustenburg Local Municipality is a Category B municipality situated within the Bojanala Platinum District Municipality in the North West province. Rustenburg is a large town situated at the foot of the Magaliesberg Mountain Range. Rustenburg (meaning ‘town of rest’ or ‘resting place’) was proclaimed a township in 1851. This large town is situated some 112km north-west and is a 90-minute drive from both Johannesburg and Pretoria.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties are indicated in the table below:

Political Party

2011 % vote

2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC 71.88% 48.55%  -23.33%
 EFF 26.76% +26.76%
 DA 20.1% 16%  -4.1%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 89
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 45
  • Seat allocation:  ANC 43 seats, EFF 24, DA 14, F4SD 4,  AIC 1, FF+ 1, UDM 1, BCM 1
  • Scenario: The ANC short 2 seats for a majority and the EFF 21 seats.
  • Possible coalitions: The ANC can form a coalition with the EFF or DA or F4SD (a new party made up of disgruntled ANC councillors) or any two of the smaller parties who holds 1 seat each. The EFF will require the support of the DA & F4SD and three of the smaller parties that holds one seat each.

CONCLUSION

Although the ANC only requires 2 seats and the EFF 21, the outcome is close to call given the kingmaker role that can be played by the F4SD and BCM -> Little known party could be play kingmaker in Rustenburg & BCM will not compromise community in coalition talks .

Read also this -> EFF might lead coalition government in Rustenburg – Shivambu 

LIMPOPO PROVINCE

There are two municipalities in the Limpopo Province in need of a coalition namely Thabazimbi and Modimolle/Mookgopong.

THABAZIMBI

Thabazimbi Local Municipality is located within the Waterberg District Municipality in the south-western part of the Limpopo province, has Botswana as its international neighbour, and is a mere two-hour drive from Pretoria. Thabazimbi is known as ‘mountain of iron’, which is a Setswana name referring to the highly lucrative iron ore reef first discovered in the municipality in 1919.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party

2011 % vote

2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC 62.71% 45.3% -17.4%
 DA 19.86% 22.21%  +2.35%
 EFF 20.24% +20.24%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 23
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 12
  • Seat allocation: ANC 10 seats, EFF 5, DA 5, TRA 2,  FF+ 1
  • Scenario: The ANC short 2 seats and the EFF and DA 7.
  • Possible coalitions: The ANC could form a coalition with the EFF or DA or the TRA (Thabazimbi Residents Association). The EFF and DA can work together but then they will also have to get the cooperation of the TRA.

CONCLUSION

The TRA is the kingmakers in this municipality and depending on who they agree to work with (ANC or DA/EFF) is going to have the majority.

MODIMOLLE/MOOKGOPONG

Mookgopong/Modimolle Local Municipality is situated within the Waterberg District in the Limpopo province. It was established by the amalgamation of the Mookgopong and Modimolle Local Municipalities in August 2016. The municipality occupies a strategic position from the main markets of the country by being at the south entrance of the province. It enjoys easy access from the main national arteries, the N1 and R101.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party

2011 % vote

2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC Newly demarcated municipality 47.71% n/a
 DA Newly demarcated municipality 40.92%  n/a
 EFF Newly demarcated municipality 5.12% n/a

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 28
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 15
  • Seat allocation: ANC 13 seats, DA 7, EFF 6, FF+ 2
  • Scenario: The ANC short 2 seats for a majority, the DA 8 and the EFF 9.
  • Possible coalitions: The ANC could work with the DA or EFF or the FF+ who has the exact number of seats they require. The DA could form a coalition with the ANC or the EEF + the FF+.

CONCLUSION

The FF+ is the kingmakers in this municipality should the ANC decide not work with the DA or EFF.

THE NEXT BLOG POST

In the next post I will look at the situation in the KwaZulu-Natal Province.

Coalition Fever: An Overview of the Metro Picture

INTRODUCTION

Following the 2016 local elections, South Africa is gripped with coalition fever, with 27 municipalities having hung councils where no one political party has more than 50% of the allocated seats.

This scenario was foreseen by a number of political commentators as far back as March 2015. See for example Brave yourself for a new era of coalition politics & 2016: Big three parties and the big four battlegrounds .

Forming coalitions is an exercise in real politics ( politics or diplomacy based primarily on considerations of given circumstances and factors, rather than explicit ideological notions or moral and ethical premises) and its therefore dangerous to predict the outcome of coalition negotiations beforehand. Relying on what is speculated in the mainstream media is especially fraught with danger as evidenced in this article looking at what transpired in 2006 in Cape Town when parties were also faced with a hung council scenario Anatomy of a coalition coup: Are there lessons ahead of the August election?

In this series of blog posts I will nevertheless look at the possible coalitions in each of the 27 municipalities starting with the Metros, followed by a second posts looking at the situation in the Free State, Gauteng, Limpopo and North West Provinces, followed by a third post looking at KwaZulu-Natal and a last post looking at the Western and Northern Cape Provinces

Of the four Metros where coalitions will be required, three are in Gauteng – Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni and one in the Eastern Cape namely Nelson Mandela Bay.

CITY OF JOHANNESBURG

BACKGROUND

The City of Johannesburg Metropolitan Municipality is located in the Gauteng province. Johannesburg is the most advanced commercial city in Africa and the engine room of the South African and regional economy. It is a city with a unique, African character, world-class infrastructure in the fields of telecommunications, transportation, water and power, and with globally-competitive health care and educational facilities. However, the city is also one of contrasts – home to both wealthy and poor, residents and refugees, global corporations and emerging enterprises.

The demographics of Johannesburg indicate a large and ethnically diverse metropolitan area. As the largest city in South Africa, its population is defined by a long history of local and international migration. Johannesburg is home to more than 4,4 million people, accounting for about 36% of Gauteng’s population and 8% of the national population.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party

2011 % vote

2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC  58.56%  44.55%  -14.05%
 DA  34.62%  38.37%  +3.75%
 EFF  – 11.09% +11.09%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 270
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 136
  • Seat allocation: ANC 121 seats, DA 104, EFF 30 & other smaller parties 15 seats
  • Scenario: The ANC short 15 seats for a majority and the DA 32 seats
  • Possible coalitions: The ANC could partner with the DA,  EFF or alternatively it will have to look at all the smaller parties to join it in a coalition. These parties include the IFP, AIC, FF+, ACDP, COPE, PA and ALJAMA of which the IFP holds the most seats namely 5. The DA could partner with the EFF but will require 2 more seats from any of the smaller parties.

CONCLUSION

A DA (121 seats), EFF (30 seats) and IFP (5 seats) coalition looks like the most likely outcome however in the game of coalitions it can work out differently in the end.

See also -> Why the DA is likely to win the coalition war in Johannesburg

 

TSHWANE METRO

BACKGROUND

The City of Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality is situated in the Gauteng province and Pretoria is the capital of South Africa. It has merged with the Metsweding District, which was a consequence of the Gauteng Global City Region Strategy to reduce the number of municipalities in Gauteng to at least four by 2016. The new City of Tshwane is now the single-largest metropolitan municipality in the country, comprising seven regions, 105 wards and 210 councillors.

Pretoria has the second-largest number of embassies in the world after Washington DC. Many embassies thus call this city their home. The Union Buildings house the administrative hub of the country and have also been the setting for the presidential inaugurations of Nelson Mandela, Thabo Mbeki and the incumbent South African president, Jacob Zuma.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party

2011 % vote

2016 % vote % Shift
 DA 38.65%  43.15% +4.5%
 ANC  55.32% 41.25%  -14.07%
 EFF  –  11.63%  +11.63%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 214
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 108
  • Seat allocation: DA 93 seats, ANC 89, EFF 25, FF+ 4 and 1 seat each for ACDP, COPE & PAC.
  • Scenario: The DA short 15 seats and the ANC 19.
  • Possible coalitions: The only available option for the ANC is a coalition with the DA or EFF. The DA’s options are also limited to either the ANC or EFF as the smaller parties combined have too few seats to make up a majority in the Metro.

CONCLUSION

In Tshwane, expect a DA and EFF and possibly also the smaller party coalition, with the DA bringing in the smaller parties to counterbalance the EFF but also given the need for a national strategic view.

EKURHULENI METRO

BACKGROUND

City of Ekurhuleni Metropolitan Municipality covers an extensive area from Germiston in the west to Springs and Nigel in the east. The former administrations of the nine towns in the former East Rand were amalgamated into the metropolitan municipality, along with the Khayalami Metropolitan Council and the Eastern Gauteng Services Council. It is one of the most densely populated areas in the province, and the country.

The economy in the region is larger and more diverse than that of many small countries in Africa. It accounts for nearly a quarter of Gauteng’s economy, which in turn contributes over a third of the national Gross Domestic Product. Many of the factories for production of goods and commodities are located in Ekurhuleni, often referred to as ‘Africa’s Workshop’.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties are indicated in the table below:

Political Party

2011 % vote

2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC 61.63% 48.64%  -12.99%
 DA 30.29% 34.15% +3.86%
EFF 11.23%  +11.23%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 224
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 113
  • Seat allocation: ANC 109 seats, DA 77, EFF 25, AIC 4, IFP & FF+ 2 each followed by 1 each for the ACDP, PAC, PA, COPE & IRASA
  • Scenario: The ANC short 4 seats for a majority and the DA 36 seats.
  • Possible coalitions: The DA will have to work with the EFF and obtain at least 11 seats from the other 7 smaller parties who together holds 13 seats. The ANC shorts only 4 seats and can look at a coalition with the DA, EFF or more likely a combination of the smaller parties.

CONCLUSION

The most likely outcome is an ANC coalition with the smaller parties perhaps the AIC and/or IFP.

See also -> Coalition politics: A reality check

NELSON MANDELA BAY METRO

BACKGROUND

Nelson Mandela Bay Metropolitan Municipality is a Category A municipality, established on 5 December 2000. Nelson Mandela Bay was the first city in South Africa to establish a fully integrated democratic local authority and the only city in the world named after Nelson Mandela, who was born and spent his formative years in the Eastern Cape. Nelson Mandela Bay is a major seaport and automotive manufacturing centre located on the south-eastern coast of Africa. It is the economic powerhouse of the Eastern Cape province and one of six metropolitan areas in South Africa.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party

2011 % vote

2016 % vote % Shift
 DA 40.13% 47.71% +6.58%
 ANC 51.91% 40.92%  -10.99%
 EFF 5.12% +5.12%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 120
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 61
  • Seat allocation: DA 57 seats, ANC 50, EFF 6, UDM 2 and 1 seat each for AIC, PA, COPE, ACDP & UFEC
  • Scenario: The DA short 4 seats for a majority and the ANC 11.
  • Possible coalitions: The DA can enter into a coalition with the EFF or if it so chooses any combination of the smaller parties who together holds 7 seats to make up the shortfall of 4 seats. The ANC have no option but to court the DA or EFF as well as obtain 5 more seats from any combination of the smaller parties if they partner with the EFF.

CONCLUSION

The DA could work with only the smaller parties but a DA and EFF coalition is most likely given the national picture where the DA requires the support of the EFF in other hung council municipalities.

THE NEXT BLOG POST

In the next post I will look at the situation in the Free State, Gauteng, Limpopo and North West Provinces.