Coalition Fever: An Overview of the Picture in the Western and Northern Cape Provinces

INTRODUCTION

Following the 2016 local elections, South Africa is gripped with coalition fever, with 27 municipalities having hung councils where no one political party has more than 50% of the allocated seats.

Forming coalitions is an exercise in real politics ( politics or diplomacy based primarily on considerations of given circumstances and factors, rather than explicit ideological notions or moral and ethical premises) and its therefore dangerous to predict beforehand the outcome of any coalition negotiations. Relying on what is speculated in the mainstream media is especially fraught with danger as evidenced in this article looking at what transpired in 2006 in Cape Town when parties were also faced with a hung council scenario Anatomy of a coalition coup: Are there lessons ahead of the August election?

In this series of blog posts I nevertheless looked at the possible coalitions in each of the 27 municipalities. In the first post the situation in the Metros was looked at ->  Coalition Fever: An Overview of the Metro Picture followed by the Free State, Gauteng, Limpopo and North West Provinces -> Coalition Fever: An Overview of the picture in the Free State, Gauteng, Limpopo and North West Provinces. In the third post I looked at all the hung councils in KwaZulu-Natal -> Coalition Fever: An Overview of the Picture in KwaZulu-Natal  and in this  last post possible coalitions in the Western and Northern Cape Provinces.

WESTERN CAPE PROVINCE

There are eight municipalities in the Western Cape that require coalitions, a full third of the 24 local municipalities. There are a number of small, local parties that hold the balance of power in various municipalities. These parties include Witzenberg Aksie (WA); the Independent Civic Organisation of South Africa (ICOSA); the Active United Front (AUF); the Knysna Unity Congress (K.U.C); the Karoo Gemeenskap Party (KGP); the Karoo Ontwikkelings Party (KOP); and the Karoo Democratic Force (KDF) (source: Peter Berkowitz).

WITZENBERG

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 DA  46.38%  45.96%  -0.42%
 ANC  36.3%  32.28%  -4.02%
 WA  – 4.99% +4.99%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 23
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 12
  • Seat allocation: DA 11 seats, ANC 8, WA 1, ICOSA 1, EFF 1, COPE 1
  • Scenario: The DA short 1 seat and the ANC 4.
  • Possible coalitions: The DA could form a coalition with any of the other 5 parties represented on Council. The ANC can work with the DA or will have to go into a coalition with the WA, ICOSA, EFF and COPE.

CONCLUSION

The most likely coalition seems to be the DA working with COPE.

HESSEQUA

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC  40.47%  46.14%  +5.67%
 DA  47.41%  42.94%  -4.47%
 FF+  – 4.86% +4.86%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 17
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 9
  • Seat allocation: ANC 8 seats, DA 8, FF+ 1
  • Scenario: The ANC and DA both short 1 seat.
  • Possible coalitions: Both the ANC or DA could partner with the FF+.

CONCLUSION

The FF+ is the kingmaker in this municipality and a DA/FF+ coalition is the most likely outcome although FF+ leader, Pieter Mulder, served previously as an deputy minister in the ANC cabinet. Latest news reports indicates that Coalition negotiations in Hessequa ‘hit a snag’

BITOU

Bitou Local Municipality, formerly known as Plettenberg Bay Municipality, forms part of the Eden District Municipality, which is located in the Western Cape province.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 DA  47.56%  48.58%  +1.02%
 ANC  45.48%  40.99%  -4.49%
 AUF  – 5.36% +5.36%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 13
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 7
  • Seat allocation: DA 6 seats, ANC 6, AUF 1
  • Scenario: The DA and ANC both short 1 seat.
  • Possible coalitions: Both the DA or ANC could partner with the AUF.

CONCLUSION

The AUF is the kingmaker in this municipality. BREAKING NEWS – The AUF has decide to side with the ANC to wrestle control of the municipality away from the DA -> AUF to from coalition with the ANC in Bitou Municipality .

KNYSNA

Knysna Local Municipality is part of the Eden District Municipality, located in the Western Cape province. Adjacent municipalities include George Local Municipality to the north-west and Bitou Local Municipality to the east. The municipality is also bordered by the Indian Ocean in the south.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
DA  50.83%  49.61%  -1.22%
 ANC  38.31%  32.14%  -6.17%
 COPE  6.85% 5.71% -1.14%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 21
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 11
  • Seat allocation: DA 10 seats, ANC 7, COPE 1, K.U.C 1, ACDP 1, Independent 1
  • Scenario: The DA short 1 seat and the ANC 4
  • Possible coalitions: The DA could form a coalition with any of the other parties whilst the ANC will have to form a coalition with the DA or alternatively the three smaller parties and the independent councillor.

CONCLUSION

A DA coalition with any of the three smaller parties or the independent councillor seems to be the most likely. BREAKING NEWS – The independent councillor, Velile Waxa, formed a coalition with the DA in the Knysna municipality -> Coalition deal gives DA a further 5 years in Knysna .

PRINCE ALBERT

Prince Albert Local Municipality lies on the southern edge of the Great Karoo, a semi-desert region of the Western Cape province. The municipality provides services to Leeu Gamka, Prince Albert Road, Klaarstroom and Prince Albert, and is an area with diverse investment opportunities.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 DA  25.57%  33.53%  +7.96%
 KGP  50.45%  32.52%  -17.93%
 ANC  23.78 31.63% +7.85%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 7
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 4
  • Seat allocation:  DA 3 seats, KGP 2, ANC 2
  • Scenario: The DA requires 1 seat and the ANC and KGP both 2 seats.
  • Possible coalitions: The DA  could work with any of the KGP or ANC. The KGP or ANC could form a coalition or any of them can decided to work with the DA.

CONCLUSION

The ANC and KGP formed a coalition after the 2011 local elections and therefore are the kingmaker in this municipality. BREAKING NEWS – The DA and KGP formed a coalition to manage the Prince Albert municipality for the next 5 years -> DA bags coalition deals in Prince Albert, Laingsburg and Beaufort West  .

LAINGSBURG

Laingsburg Local Municipality is a friendly, modern Karoo town, only 280km from Cape Town. The town lies in a geologically fascinating area, steeped in history and tradition. It is a worthwhile and hospitable stop on the busy N1 highway through the Great Karoo.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC  37.81%  46.08%  +8.27%
 DA  40.48%  43.88%  +3.4%
 KOP  – 4.5% +4.5%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 7
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 4
  • Seat allocation: ANC 3 seats, DA 3, KOP 1
  • Scenario: Both the ANC and DA short 1 seat to form a majority.
  • Possible coalitions: Both the ANC and DA will have to form a coalition with the KOP to form a majority.

CONCLUSION

A DA/COPE coalition governed this municipality after the 2011 elections. The KOP is the kingmaker in this municipality. BREAKING NEWS – The DA entered into a coalition agreement with the KOP -> Karoo Parties, DA forms coalition in three hung councils .

BEAUFORT WEST

Beaufort West Local Municipality is located in the Western Cape province. The adjacent municipalities and provinces include the following: Karoo Hoogland Local Municipality, Namakwa District Municipality and Northern Cape (north-west), Ubuntu Local Municipality, Pixley Ka Seme District Municipality and Northern Cape (north), Camdeboo Local Municipality, Sarah Baartman District Municipality and Eastern Cape (east), Sarah Baartman District Municipality and Eastern Cape (south-east), Prince Albert Local Municipality (south), and Laingsburg Local Municipality (south-west).

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 DA  41.01%  48.99%  +7.98%
 ANC  50.17%  42.21%  -7.96%
 KDF  – 5.18% +5.18%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 13
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 7
  • Seat allocation: DA 6 seats, ANC 6, KDF 1
  • Scenario: Both the DA and ANC short 1 seat.
  • Possible coalitions: Both the DA and ANC will have to work with the KDF.

CONCLUSION

The KDP holds the balance of power in this municipality. BREAKING NEWS – The DA and KDF formed a coalition to wrestle control of this municipality from the ANC -> KDF: Beaufort West coalition marks the end of corruption .

KANNALAND

Kannaland Local Municipality is classified as a Category B municipality and is responsible for basic service provision to the towns of Calitzdorp, Ladismith, Vanwyksdorp and Zoar, as well as the surrounding farming communities. Kannaland is situated about 340km north-east of Cape Town along the famous tourism Route 62. It is linked by tarred main roads to all other major centres, such as Oudtshoorn (100km), Montagu (139km), George (160km), Mossel Bay (185km) and Port Elizabeth (420km).

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 ICOSA  41.96%  48.14%  +6.18%
 DA  23.49%  27.52%  +4.03%
 ANC  26.67% 21.51% -5.16%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 7
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 4
  • Seat allocation:  ICOSA 3 seats, DA 2, ANC 2
  • Scenario: ICOSA short 1 seat and both the DA and ANC 2 seats.
  • Possible coalitions: The

CONCLUSION

The seat allocation is the same as in 2011 when the ANC and ICOSA formed a coalition. Latest media reports seems to indicate that ICOSA is still talks with both the ANC and DA -> DA hoping to complete coalition deals in hung WC councils today .

NORTHERN CAPE

There are three small municipalities that require coalitions. Small parties and independents will be crucial in all three municipalities. The parties to watch are the Kgatelopele Community Forum (KCF) and the Khoisan Revolution (KSR).

UBUNTU

Ubuntu Local Municipality is a municipality in the Pixley Ka Seme District Municipality in the Northern Cape province. Its seat is Victoria West.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC  53.55%  42.04%  -11.51%
 DA  31.97%  31.21%  -0.76%
 IND  – 13.76% +13.76%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 7
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 4
  • Seat allocation: ANC 3 seats, DA 2, Independents x2
  • Scenario: The ANC short 1 seat and the DA 2.
  • Possible coalitions: The ANC could work with the DA or any one of the independent councillors. The DA will have to work with the ANC or secure the support of both the independent councillors.

CONCLUSION

The independent councillors are the kingmakers in this municipality.

KGATELOPELE

Kgatelopele Local Municipality is a Category B municipality found in the Northern Cape province. It was formerly known as Danielskuil Municipal District or Area.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC  67.15%  43.05%  -24.1%
 DA  21.98%  28.1%  +6.12%
 KCF  – 22% +22%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 7
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 4
  • Seat allocation: ANC 3 seats, DA 2, KCF 2
  • Scenario: The ANC short seat 1 seat and the DA and KFC both 2.
  • Possible coalitions: The ANC could form a coalition with the DA or KFC. The DA will have to work with either the ANC or KFC.

CONCLUSION

The KFC is the kingmaker in this municipality and could either go with the ANC or DA.

NAMA KHOI

Nama Khoi Local Municipality is situated on the north-western side of the Northern Cape province. It forms part of the Namakwa District Municipality, with the town of Springbok as the administrative centre. It is the largest municipality in the Namakwa District Municipality. Nama and Khoisan people occupied this area for hundreds of years.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC  48.92%  46.73%  -2.19%
 DA  35.15%  41.01%  +5.86%
 KSR  – 5.15% +5.15%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 17
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 9
  • Seat allocation: ANC 8 seats, DA 7, KSR 1, COPE 1
  • Scenario: The ANC short 1 seat and the DA 2.
  • Possible coalitions: The ANC could form a coalition with any of the DA, KSR or COPE. The DA will have to work with the ANC or secure the support of both KSR and COPE.

CONCLUSION

The KSR and COPE holds the balance of power in this municipality.

WORD OF THANKS

Thanks to the IEC and Paul Berkowitz for the pictures used in this series of blog posts. Paul wrote an excellent summary on the coalition picture outside of the Metros which could be read here ->  Coalition politics: what’s possible outside of the metros .

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One response to “Coalition Fever: An Overview of the Picture in the Western and Northern Cape Provinces

  1. Pingback: ANC biggest loser in 2016 coalition outcome, DA biggest winner but EFF still holds the keys | 2 Sides 2 Everything

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